Lack of investment, new projects threaten Sub-Saharan Africa oil production

European majors are gravitating towards an increasingly gas-heavy portfolio to reduce their carbon emissions. This is forcing them to reallocate capital away from oil heavy developments to lower carbon projects. The forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa’s total output (boed) is forecast to grow to 2025 as the production of natural gas will begin to outweigh crude oil and condensate. Gas currently makes up 22% of the regions’ production and is forecast to grow to approximately 30% by 2025. However, this forecast hinges upon multiple developments that have not yet received FID.

Ward continues: “Sub-Saharan Africa is seeing a shift of investment away from the more developed countries in the region, most notably Nigeria, and more towards frontier countries such as Mauritania, Senegal, Mozambique, and Uganda as the fiscal terms offered by the host countries are far more appealing and have a large untapped resource base. If Nigeria wishes to continue to attract investment and achieve a plateau in production, it will need to tackle the above ground risks which companies face.”

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