Non-OPEC+ to lead 2024 oil production growth, offsetting output cuts

*Global oil flow.

Houston — Near-term global oil and liquids production growth will be driven primarily by the U.S., Guyana, Canada, and Brazil, offsetting voluntary production cuts by OPEC+, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecast on Thursday.

The boost to supply comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, this month agreed to extend voluntary, opens new tab output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in a bid to boost prices.

Growth from non-OPEC+ producers could undermine efforts by OPEC+ to support the market amid concerns about global demand growth and increased supplies. The U.S. , Canada, Brazil and Guyana account for more than 80% of global supply growth in the EIA’s current forecast.

OPEC+ petroleum liquids production will fall by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, while non-members’ supply will grow 1.4 million bpd, led by the U.S., the EIA said.

In 2025, OPEC+ petroleum liquids production will climb by 900,000 bpd as production cuts expire, while non-OPEC+ output will grow by a further 1.1 million bpd, according to the EIA.

Global petroleum and liquids supply was 101.8 million bpd in 2023 and is expected to increase by 400,000 bpd in 2024 and 2 million bpd in 2025, the EIA said.

U.S. oil production hit 13.3 million barrels per day in 2023 and is expected to grow by 400,000 bpd in 2024 and 800,000 bpd in 2025.

*Georgina McCartney; editing: Liz Hampton & Marguerita Choy – Reuters

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