North Dakota oil regulator expects lower oil prices this year amid Trump tariff uncertainty

North Dakota is the third-largest oil producing state in the U.S.

U.S. crude futures have been trading below $70 a barrel for the last three weeks, according to data from LSEG, with investor sentiment partly quashed by uncertainty around potential trade tariffs.

“I think the Trump administration is doing things with tariffs and sanctions, and there’s a lot of movement occurring right now so I’m not surprised by the lower oil price,” he added.

“I expect if the price dips low enough the federal government might consider increasing input into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and that would probably set the floor for oil prices,” Anderson said.

In 2022, then President Joe Biden’s administration announced a sale of 180 million barrels of oil, the largest ever SPR sale, in an attempt to lower gasoline prices after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Meanwhile, there are currently 12 active frac crews in North Dakota, steady on the month, according to the state regulator.

Oil production in the state fell 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.172 million bpd in January, monthly data from the state Industrial Commission showed.

“We attribute that to a cold spell in January, and then I would expect February, due to its very cold temperatures, to have similar results,” said Anderson.

The rig count and completion activity in 2025 so far has been steady.

Meanwhile, Bakken oil delivered at Clearbrook, Minnesota, was pricing at an 80 cent per barrel discount to West Texas Intermediate on Friday, the state regulator said.