Dangote targets 650,000bpd refinery expansion in East Africa

Goli Innocent 

Lagos — President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has outlined plans to replicate his 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery model in East Africa, signalling a fresh push to deepen Africa’s refining capacity and cut reliance on imported petroleum products.

Speaking at the Africa We Build Summit 2026 in Nairobi, Dangote said the Nigerian refinery already operating at 650,000bpd and still undergoing expansion would serve as the template for similar large-scale investments across the region, provided host governments provide the required policy and infrastructural backing.

He stressed that the ambition is not speculative but rooted in what has already been achieved in Nigeria, where the refinery has become one of the continent’s most ambitious industrial projects. According to him, the next phase is scaling that capacity to about 1.4 million barrels per day, positioning the group for wider regional supply influence.

“If they will support the refinery, we’ll build the identical one that we have in Nigeria, 650,000 bpd. It will work. There’s nothing that can stop it. We have done the one in Nigeria,” Dangote said, underscoring confidence in the replicability of the model.

His comments reflect a broader industrial argument he has consistently made that Africa loses value by exporting crude and importing refined products, exposing economies to external price shocks and supply instability.

Industry data shows that sub-Saharan Africa continues to import a significant share of its refined fuel needs despite being a major crude producer, a gap that large-scale private refineries like Dangote’s aim to close. The Nigerian facility alone has already altered regional fuel trade flows, reducing dependency on European imports in certain product categories.

Dangote added that Africa’s industrial future depends on building credible, bankable projects that can attract global financing, stressing that disciplined execution and repayment integrity are key to unlocking long-term capital inflows into the continent’s energy sector.

He also reiterated that the Nigerian refinery remains the anchor of his expansion strategy, describing it as the proof point that large-scale refining is viable in Africa when supported by the right policy environment and execution framework.

The proposed East African expansion, if realised, would mark one of the most significant private sector-led refining developments on the continent in decades, with potential implications for fuel pricing, regional energy security, and industrialisation patterns.